International Monetary Fund Chief Economist Gita Gopinath tells Indivjal Dhasmana high-frequency indicators for the third quarter of 2021 indicate momentum in economic recovery in India.
They welcomed the guests before the start of the dinner from the reception dais, with its backdrop showcasing the ruins of the Nalanda University in Bihar besides India's G20 presidency theme -- 'Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam - One Earth, One Family, One Future'.
Gita Gopinath, the IMF's Indian-American chief economist has been promoted as its First Deputy Managing Director recognising her exceptional intellectual leadership in helping the global economy and the Fund to navigate the "twists and turns" of the "worst economic crisis of our lives". Gopinath would replace Geoffrey Okamoto who plans to leave the International Monetary Fund early next year, Kristalina Georgieva, IMF's managing director announced on Thursday. Gopinath, who was scheduled to return to her academic position at Harvard University in January 2022, has decided to stay, she said. Gopinath, 49, has served as the first female chief economist of the Washington-based global lender for three years.
Those who consider the rupee as a proxy for virility have started thumping their chests and dreaming of dethroning the dollar from its coveted position, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
As the policy rate has seen a steady increase since May 2022, the percentage of loans offered at interest rates below 8 per cent have declined sharply, dropping from 53 per cent in March 2022 to 18 per cent by June 2023, according to a report by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The share of bank loans with interest rates of 10 per cent or higher rose from 22 per cent to 34 per cent during this period, reflecting the impact of a 250 basis point (bps) hike in the policy repo rate by the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee. In response to the rise in repo rate, 32 domestic banks have made corresponding upward revisions to their repo-linked external benchmark-based lending rates (EBLRs), aligning them with the magnitude of the rate hike.
The question is whether this would mean any change in IMF's policies, particularly on the question of what to forgo out of the impossible trinity of an independent monetary policy, managed exchange rates and a liberal capital account.
India's fiscal policy is not supportive of monetary measures that the country's central bank is employing to fight rampant inflation, the prime minister's honorary economic advisor and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Raghuram Rajan said, while singling out the proposed Food Security Bill as a particular cause for concern.
The IMF and World Bank have stopped loans, and the FATF warned its 39 member nations to block Taliban assets.
Two-wheeler exports from India fell by 17.8 per cent to 3.65 million units in 2022-23 (FY23), according to data released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam) on Thursday. This decline is due to a rise in global inflation and the weakening of economies and currencies in key export markets of Africa, Latin America (LatAm), and South Asia. In contrast to FY23, two-wheeler exports from India jumped 35.4 per cent to 4.44 million units in 2021-22 (FY22).
Gold reserves were up by $712 million to $34.729 billion.
The biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Wednesday. Varma, in an interview to PTI, said that inflation and inflationary expectations appear to be moderating and high inflation will certainly not become the 'norm' in the country. He is cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy as after the pandemic abated, consumption demand has begun to recover though the recovery is uneven across sectors and industries.
The Economic Survey 2022-23 (FY23), to be presented a day before Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24), is likely to project India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 6 per cent and 7 per cent for FY24, Business Standard has learnt. The broader theme of the Survey could be on how India has dealt with two years of a global pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical disturbance, the strengths and weaknesses that emerged, and what lessons may be learnt. The much-awaited Survey will be the first one by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the finance ministry's economic division.
One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate/construction and finance. But India has serious trade and fiscal imbalances, and excessive dependence on capital expenditure by the government, points out T N Ninan.
India's growth in the last three financial years has averaged just 1.9%. It is natural to project rapid growth from this low base. Crucial to that would be the assumption that the economy has suffered no lasting damage from the pandemic, observes T N Ninan.
During the week, gold reserves declined by $443 million to $26.910 billion.
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
There is also a lobby within the bureaucracy that wants to see Rajan's influence curtailed
European Union leaders are expected to clear the way for releasing 31.5 billion euro ($41 billion) in urgently-needed financial assistance for debt-stricken Greece at their two-day summit which opens in Brussels today.
Foreign currency assets, which are a major component of the overall reserves, rose by $646.4 million to $386.762 billion.
In recent times, the multilateral lending agency extended financial aid to crisis-hit nations such as Greece and Romania.
'Just because of my background and poor academic qualifications, most people disbelieve what I have done.'
Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa came out in the open on Tuesday to oppose the notion that the next Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should be from Europe and argued that such a selection criteria undermines the legitimacy of the fund.
Many including IMP oppose allowing industrial houses to set up banks.
Test your knowledge of international finance with our quiz on the renminbi
The country's forex reserves inched higher to $292.24 billion as of January 24, from $292.08 billion in the earlier week.
The banking regulator was uncomfortable with the runaway pace at which consumer credit was growing.
'Nations like India with high inflation and public debt should be cautious'
In a move intended to reassure the jittery financial markets, the European Commissioner for Monetary Affairs, Olli Rehn, on Thursday stressed the fact that the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were aware of the need to move swiftly to help an overly indebted Greece.
A bench of Justices Sanjiv Khanna and SVN Bhatti, which reserved its verdict on two separate regular bail pleas of Sisodia in the corruption and money laundering cases, told the ED it cannot go by the assumption of bribe having been paid, and whatever protection an accused enjoys under law needs to be granted.
Japanese conglomerate Softbank's arm SVF Doorbell (Cayman) on Wednesday divested 3.8 per cent of its stake in supply chain company Delhivery for Rs 954 crore through open market transactions. Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, City of New York Group Trust, Societe Generale, BNP Paribas Arbitrage, Morgan Stanley Mauritius, Baillie Gifford Emerging Markets Equities Fund were among the buyers of shares.
Edtech major Byju's on Tuesday said it has filed a complaint in the New York Supreme Court to challenge acceleration of the $1.2 billion Term Loan B (TLB). The company is also seeking the disqualification of Redwood, who contrary to the terms of TLB, purchased a significant portion of the loan while primarily trading in distressed debt. "Byju's has had to take these measures following a series of predatory tactics by the lenders, led by Redwood," the company said in a statement.
A high-tech Chinese research ship docked at the strategically important Hambantota port departed from Sri Lankan waters on Monday after a controversial six-day visit.
Workers aged between 15 and 30 years are five times more likely to remain unemployed and twice as likely to be under-employed.
Gold reserves increased $1.54 billion to $32.68 billion in the reporting week.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram at the Group of 24 Meeting of the Ministers at the International Monetary Fund headquarters in Washington, DC on Thursday.
The multilateral lending agency, however, expressed concern over rising prices and underlined the need
Inflation in India is going to be a persistent problem.
Gold reserve also declined by $340 million to $30.55 billion.
Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has brought about a coup in North Block by bringing an Indian Foreign Service officer Venu Rajamoni as Joint Secretary to head multilateral institutions division.
Foreign exchange reserve, often taken as a yardstick to gauge a country's financial strength, are the foreign currency deposits and bonds held by central banks or monetary authorities (it is Reserve Bank in case of India).
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